Is the
Huckabee surge
for real?
This analysis is
not bad: "
Huckabee's populist economic message could also help give the GOP ticket a boost among once Republican-leaning but now disaffected voters in Ohio. Of course, there would be concern that his socially conservative positions could turn off moderate suburbanites."
One reason that
Huckabee's campaign has been so successful so far, I think, is because he is in fact a masterful politician. He can appear on Bill
Maher one day and bash Bush's foreign policy and even sound like a progressive when he talks about education or economic policy. Then, not long after, he will appear before a group of
Christain evangelicals and speak to the right of everyone else on the stage on issues like school prayer and abortion-- without either of his two constituencies being that cognizant of what he said to the others.
But as he climbs in the polls, and receives greater press and blog scrutiny, his various constituencies are more likely to see what he says when he is not speaking directly to each of them. A case in point:
Maher, a fan, and who has had
Huckabee on his show more than once, appeared taken aback recently when a guest talked about
Huckabee's recent comments suggesting that illegal immigration was related to legalized abortion. The downside to an ascending candidacy is that CNN and
Youtube are
paying attention.
Meanwhile, one thing is all but certain:
This will almost certainly become an
issue again for
Huckabee-- another example as to how climbing in the polls leads to more intense scrutiny-- by the media,
bloggers, and one's fellow candidates. One of the reasons that Fred Thompson did so well-- before he declared his candidacy on Leno- was that as long as he didn't enter the arena editors didn't want to send their reporters out to scrutinize his past until he was indeed a candidate.
Other than say, Sam
Brownback, was any other Republican candidate doing opposition research on
Huckabee. I think it is safe to assume that someone working for Rudy
Guliani has done a Google search, and if they have, and found anything, call John Solomon at the
Washington Post with the details.
(The scuttlebutt from the campaign trail is that Solomon is the go-to-guy for candidates with the goods on their competitors. Complaints from reporters at other newspapers are that editors at their own papers are less likely to print negative stuff on candidates without saying where it has come from, while Solomon can remain mum where the goods came from; and through Solomon, an ambitious operative has in the
Washington Post one of the most powerful platforms an operative leak an allegation about a rival or amplify one already made.
(I think there is a good discussion that journalists and
bloggers should have about the motives of their
leakers should be more transparent to their readers. As far as I know, only Josh Marshall has even addressed this issue,
while taking a shot at deconstructing Solomon.)
In any case, after
discursing,
this story has in recent days been read by more people than when it was originally posted and published in Nov. 2002.
Meanwhile, Matt
Yglesias weighs in about this and other things.
And Susan
Milligan in the
Boston Globe gave many readers in neighboring New Hampshire their first exposure to the
Dumond issue in
this story.
First update: Oops. I forgot that I
written a post-- at this very blog!-- (that was a self-deprecating reference to the fact that I have all of about eleven readers currently to this blog) about
Huckabee and
Dumond when the former governor was interviewed on
Meet the Press and Tim
Russert actually asked him some questions from my
Arkansas Times story. (I
pledge to my eleven readers that I will probably not link again to my own blog soon. That I did not remember my own blog posting probably indicates that anyone should consider it memorable-- except for the fact that former Governor
Huckabee may have given misleading answers to some of
Russert's questions.)
Second update: I should have remembered this as well. John
Amato has the video of that appearance by
Huckabee on
Meet the Press. Personal thanks to Tim
Russrt for asking the right and tough questions as well as to John for posting the video and advancing the story as well.
Third update: Columnist Scott Leigh of the
Boston Globe believes that
the Huckabee surge is for real: "A recent
Rausmassen survey has [
Huckabee] tied for second with Fred Thompson in
Iow, with neither far behind."
