If the election were held today, the winner would be... not Tom Delay! A Houston Chronicle poll out this morning finds that at least half of those who voted for Delay the last time around are considering voting for someone else this time.
If the election were held today, the Chronicle poll found, only 22 percent of Delay's constituents would vote for him. In contrast, former Democratic Congressman Nick Lampson, who will oppose him in the general election, would garner 30 percent of the votes. And former Republican congressman Steven Stockman, who is likely to run as an independent in the race, would pick up 11 percent of voters. Stockman would also provide an outlet for die-hard Texas conservative Republicans, who don't want to vote for either Delay or a Democrat to have a third option on election day. A well-financed campaign by Stockman might make it very difficult for Delay to win back his congressional seat, should he run. And this recent NYT story says it has become increasingly more likely in recent days that Stockman will indeed run.
Delay's constituency aside, perhaps the more important vote regarding the soon-to-be former House majority leader will be that of a jury of his peers. They, of course, will be polled, not by the Houston Chronicle, but rather by a Travis county jury foreperson.